A friend suggested that since I did well at my pick 'em NFL football leagues (I'm in two and near the top of both: 3rd in one, in the 75% percentile in the other, this season, always near the top, but never the winner, so far), I should start betting on football, so I opened an account at an offshore casino. My cousin saw my league rankings and said I should blog about my picks. I am supposed to be Dr. G. The only problem with this is I suck at betting. What I mean by suck, such a generic unspecific word (unless it's used in a sexual setting or with a baby). Is that I haven't won a single bet. In fact I'm 0 for 10. if I have a 50-50 chance of winning a bet that adds up to a (1/2)^10... probability of being wrong on ten straight bets.... .00097 one in 1000 chance of that happening if my bets were just random. of course I was trying to win. which means I really, well, suck. Maybe I am just self-sabotaging myself, either that or there is someone upstairs who wants me to know that if I want to make money, I'm going to have to work for it. Of course this makes me the perfect person to tell you how to bet, just do the opposite of what I say and you'll rake in the money.
Matt Hasselback (pictured above) will determine whether Seattle can upset Green Bay. Every time I watch Seattle, he throws a few picks, starting when he guaranteed a victory in overtime in a 2004 playoff game at Lambeau field (Green Bay, Wisc.) and then threw the game-winning INTERCEPTION, can he change? evolve? It's the question we all want answered.
The NFL Playoffs (ok, just warning you, so far I've been right about them, but still managed to lose my money. the whole spread thing often throws me)... also I'm copying King Kaufman with his whole capitalizing the winner thing. check out his column at Salon.com, for professional opinions.
(note: I'm always betting against the point spread unless otherwise stated).
SEATTLE at Green Bay (13-3) (-8)... Green Bay is rested, Favre is in maybe his last year. Green Bay has finally found a good running game. They are a young team. We saw last weekend how Seattle has lock-down corners. Shaun Alexander seemed to be playing as well as he has in years. Matt Hasselback, made some characteristic bad decisions (throwing a couple of picks that didn't affect the outcome of the game, Washington folded after they recovered a kickoff after finally coming back to take the lead. They failed to scoring after starting at Seattle's 9, that was the game. Washington's offense went to the tank after that Seattle used a short field to go ahead and then scored on two interception returns to ice the game. The question: How will this game be decided? How will the QB's do against the opposing defense. Both teams have solid running games. The difference will be how Favre and Hasselback handle the playoff pressure. I think Hasselback will choke more than Favre. but it isn't really choking if he always does it (throws picks). I definitely think at least one interception will be returned for a touchdown. bet on that! my UNPREDICTION: I pick Seattle to cover the spread.
Which means Green Bay will win in a Landslide. My recommendation: take the safe bet, Green Bay to win straight up.
Game Time temperature is in the upper 20s.
JACKSONVILLE (12-5) @ New England (16-0) (-13.5)
Ok, my pick is Jacksonville to cover, ok against the Steelers they didn't look so good. Jackonsville's QB, David Gerrard didn't really look good at all throwing the ball, but he did win the game for them, with his feet. I'm definitely not sold on the Pat's defense. I don't think teams will lose games before they have even started in the postseason, which is want happened to a few teams in the regular season. Jacksonville's running game, especially De La Salle (Concord, CA) grad Maurice Jones-Drew will give the Patriots all kinds of trouble. The Patriots, can't play better than they have all season. The Jaguars are fierce. A safe bet would be that Jacksonville will cover. This is definitely a game to watch, let's see how good the Pats are.
Game time temperature: the 30s, possibly snow.
My recommendation: Jacksonville to cover. this is something I think I'm going to bet on. No unprediction: It's the playoffs, New England can't possibly blow them out.
If you lose money on this one, I'll come over and clean your bathroom (but only if you live in Narberth or Bloomington).
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